曾德珩，陈春江，徐盼盼

（重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院，重庆400045）

摘　要：2006年以来，中央与地方政府多次出台房地产调控政策。调控政策对不同城市房价的抑制是否有效，有效期能持续多久存在争议。本文在梳理2006—2017年房地产调控政策的基础上，基于断点回归理论和散点拟合方法，分析了房地产调控政策对不同城市住宅价格的影响。结果表明：第一，不同城市调控政策的实施效果存在明显的城际差异；第二，调控政策对房价的影响存在滞后现象，尤其是政策退出时；第三，现有的土地政策、税收政策均不利于房地产调控。据此，本文提出实施差异化调控政策，以解决中央与地方的利益冲突，构建房地产调控的长效机制等。

关键词：房地产调控政策；城市住宅价格；断点回归；因城施策

中图分类号：F293.31文献标识码：A

Analysis on the Impact of Real Estate Regulation Policy to Urban Housing Price by Regression Discontinuity(www.daowen.com)

ZENG Deheng，CHEN Chunjiɑng，XU Pɑnpɑn

（School of Management Science and Real Estate，Chongqing University，Chongqing 400045，P.R.China）

Abstract：Since 2006，the central and local governments have repeatedly ruled out real estate regulation policy.Whether the regulation policy is effective against the housing price and how long it lasts are hot topics all the time.Based on analysis of the real estate regulation policy from 2006 to 2017 and the evolution of policy objectives and the specific policy tools，the article presents the impact of real estate regulation policy to urban housing price by regression discontinuity and scatter fitting.The result shows that：first，the impactof regulation policy which is implemented in different cities is different；second，regulation policy influences the urban housing price with hysteresis，especially the policy exit；third，present land policy and tax policy are not beneficial to real estate regulation.Finally，several suggestions are proposed as follows：implementing differential regulation policy；solving the interest conflictbetween the central government and the local government；and setting up a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation.

Keywords：real estate regulation policy；urban housing price；regression discontinuity；take differential policies in different cities

2006年以来，面对不断上升的房价，中央与地方政府前后5次出台房地产调控政策。作为国家运用行政权力干预市场的典型领域，政府通过土地、金融、税收、限购等政策组合，在一段时间内确实对抑制房价的快速上涨发挥了作用，但当政策退出时，房价又快速上涨。房价陷入了“一控就停，一松就涨”的怪圈。本文通过对2006年以来我国房地产调控政策演进的梳理，并以2010—2014年这一完整的“进入—退出”调控周期中10个一、二线城市的房地产价格数据与政策文件为依据，通过断点回归模型及散点拟合，对调控政策实施及退出的有效性进行了定性和定量分析。这对深刻理解我国不同区域的差异化房地产市场，为下一阶段的调控方向与房地产市场长效机制的建立具有较重要的意义。