陈 莎 叶艳妹

摘 要：20世纪后半叶以来，伴随着农村劳动力逐渐向城镇转移的过程，耕地撂荒现象逐渐演变为全球性的土地利用现象，已然深刻改变了我国广大地区的农村景观。本文聚焦于分析耕地撂荒的关键因素，提出耕地撂荒和农村劳动力外流的本质原因在于目前的耕地经营方式无法保障农民过上与进城打工者基本相当的生活。将农户作为耕地利用方式的决策单元，运用成本收益法和博弈理论推导农户土地利用行为方式和劳动力配置的选择过程和必要条件，探讨降低农业生产成本、提升农业效益的可能途径。通过实例测算发现，在保持种植粮食作物的情况下，以家庭农场为形式的经营主体，其耕地种植面积必须达到115～160亩的规模才能使农户与城市务工者的经济效益大致相当。随后本文构建了包含“撂荒行为识别—撂荒效应评估—撂荒政策应对”的制度框架，并提出了一系列激励政策，具体政策包括农地综合整治、促进农地流转、鼓励农民自愿退出、家庭农场建设与管理以及相关税费政策，为破解我国耕地撂荒困局提供依据和参考。

关键词：耕地撂荒；经济效益；农地制度；农业劳动力；规模经营

Key Factors towards Farmland Abandonment：Management Scale and Incentive Policies

CHEN Sha YE Yanmei(www.daowen.com)

Abstract：With the gradual process of rural labor force migration to urban area since the 1950s，farmland abandonment has evolved into a global problem about land utilization，which profoundly changed the vast rural landscape in China.This paper focused on the key factors towards farmland abandonment.We believe the key reason for farmland abandonment and rural labor outflow is that the current farmland management way cannot guarantee farmers living a life similar with non-farm employers.Taking the farmer as decision making unit for farmland utilization，the cost-benefit method and game theory were applied to examining the necessary prerequisite for land use pattern selection，and possible ways to reduce agricultural production cost as well as to increase agricultural efficiency were discussed.Through practical calculation，results showed that in terms of grain planting，a family farm with cultivated land 115-160 mu can afford farmers the life with the same living standard as non-farm employers in the urban area.Then this paper established an institutional framework containing behavior recognition，effect evaluation and policy response to specifically deal with the problem of farmland abandonment.In addition，a series of incentive policies are presented in the end of this paper to provide policy reference for solving the problem of farmland abandonment，including land consolidation and improvement，promotion of land transfer，rural land voluntary exit，the construction and management of the family farm and related tax and fee policies.

Key words：agricultural land abandonment；economic benefits；rural land institution；agricultural labor force；scale operation

耕地撂荒是指在耕地利用过程中，生产经营者由于主观原因放弃耕种而造成的耕地处于闲置或未充分利用的状态。随着工业化的快速发展和城镇化的持续推进，进城务工机会大量增加，务工工资持续增长，使得越来越多的农村劳动力向城镇地区和非农产业部门转移。农民工人口的不断增长和农业劳动力数量的持续减少已成为2003年以来中国劳动力变化的显著特征。中国人均耕地面积仅有世界平均水平的40%，城市化发展压力不断加剧，然而近年来我国部分省份大面积的土地弃耕撂荒现象越来越明显，在山地丘陵地区尤为突出。农民不愿留在农村种地而选择进城务工，撂荒现象难以遏制的根本缘由是什么?应对撂荒问题的关键因素在哪里?这是一个值得研究的议题。文章主要内容安排如下，首先对目前耕地撂荒的研究成果进行回顾和梳理，并对耕地撂荒的成因进行理论层面的分析；随后运用经济模型和博弈理论对农户土地利用行为选择的机理进行定量分析，并通过实例计算，确定家庭农场的合理经营规模；在对耕地撂荒涉及的关键问题进行重新审视和讨论的基础上，构建一个初步的撂荒治理制度框架，并提出相应的一系列激励政策。