制造业的衰退已得到广泛认可和讨论。如第四章所述，在主流经济学中，这被解释为经济发展中的自然过程，是一次结构转型，从制造业经济转到服务经济。像农业一样，制造业的生产率水平很高，因此即使就业率下降，产出也可能继续增加。从历史上看，制造业生产率一直保持高增长。根据经济分析局的资料，1997年至2015年期间，制造业的实际增加值约为40%。115尽管在这个估计中存在计量问题，但它表明制造业可以为一个经济体提供生产率比例因子。116

这并不是说美国有可能恢复到1979年的制造业就业水平，即1 950万个岗位，但2000年之后的十年中制造业就业人数令人难以置信地持续下降也不一定代表制造业的未来。正如第三章所讨论的那样，先进制造业的实际就业收益并不在工厂生产本身——沙漏的狭窄中心——而是在沙漏的顶部和底部，生产的投入和产出部分。因此，主要收益在过沙漏连通的企业价值链中，从投入（资源、组件、研发）到产出（分销、零售、产品生命周期支持）这个过程中。如上所述，从工厂角度衡量制造业就业机会忽略了制造业在经济中的连接作用，先进制造业的真正收益在整个沙漏中。而且，正如第三章所讨论的那样，未来的公司可能会融合产品与服务，增加附加服务可交易性的流程也提高了服务部门的生产率。

对先进制造业的大量投资有助于直接解决工人失业、工资和黄金年龄工人未就业等潜在问题。这不是短期刺激措施，而需要很长的实施时间。但是，目前的经济问题是结构性而非周期性的，这种方法确实能够解决一些最关键的问题。此外，有别于上文讨论的与技术驱动的新创新浪潮无关的传统基础设施投资，先进制造业与一系列主要技术进步相关（详见第五章和第六章）。虽然针对的是成熟的传统部门，即制造业，但先进制造业致力于遵循规模化生产和高质量制造等技术驱动型创新浪潮的模式。通过对先进制造基础设施的支持推动具有重大影响的技术进步，生产率提高的潜在幅度将远远超出预期。

对先进制造业的支持不能采用传统基础设施的“公共品”运营方式。制造基础设施（战时或经济危机时除外，例如联邦政府在大衰退时期接管大部分汽车业）传统上一直为私人持有。经济学家长期以来一直反对“产业政策”，抗议政府对市场的低效干预。117先进制造业项目将设计为由行业，而非政府主导的产业。政府应继续扮演由于市场失灵而长期以来获得市场认可且历史悠久的研发和教育角色，为先进制造业提供传统的“公共产品。

把两年制和四年制大学与制造商联盟和政府研发机构联合起来，为制造技术进步以及帮助工人回归制造业价值链提供了一条真实路径。正如第四章所讨论的那样，这是政府重组劳动力培训计划，建立比贸易调整援助计划更有效系统的机会。这是一项重要投资的另一个原因在于，制造业，特别是新技术生产在美国创新体系中占有重要位置。尽管主流经济学难以区分不同经济部门的生产率属性，但制造业确实非常重要。118短期内，制造业刺激计划的效果可能低于投资于传统基础设施，但由于包括了供应因素，更有利于长期增长。我们会面对福特、布莱恩霍夫森和迈克菲所描述的那种世界吗？除非目前的趋势逆转，否则短期内不会发生。目前仍然需要寻找解决方案，比如通过制造业的高就业乘数解决已经存在的严重不平等问题。投资于先进制造可能是适应21世纪的关键一步。

注释

1.Riots at Nottingham，Times（London，England），November 18，1811，The Times Digital Archive.

2.Roger Luckhurst，Automation，in The Oxford Handbooks Online（Oxford：Oxford University Press，November 2014）.http：//www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199838844.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199 838844-e-17.

3.John Beckett，Luddites，The Nottingham Heritage Gateway website，http：//www.nottsheritagegateway.org.uk/people/luddites.htm.

4.Paul Lindholdt，Luddism and Its Discontents，American Quarterly 49，no.4（1997）：866.

5.Luckhurst，Automation.

6.Lindholdt，Luddism and Its Discontents，868.

7.Joel Mokyr，Chris Vickers，and Nicolas L.Ziebarth，The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth：Is This Time Different？，Journal of Economic Perspectives 29，no.3（2015）：34.

8.Susan Helper，Timothy Krueger，and Howard Wial，Why Does ManufacturingMatter？Which ManufacturingMatters？（paper，Brookings Institution，Washington，DC，February 22，2016），9-10.

9.Chester Levine，Laurie Salmon，and Daniel H.Weinberg，Revising the Standard Occupational Classification System，Monthly Labor Review（May 1999）：43-44.

10.Stanley Lebergott，Labor Force and Employment，1800-1960，in Output，Employment，and Productivity in the United States after 1800，ed.Dorothy S.Brady（New York：National Bureau of Economic Research，1966），119.

11.Ibid.，36.

12.John Maynard Keynes，Essays in Persuasion（New York：Classic House Books，2009），197.

13.Lydia Saad，The 40-Hour Workweek Is Actually Longer—by Seven Hours，Gallup，August 29，2014.

14.Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee，The Second Machine Age：Work，Progress，and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies（New York：Norton，2014），41.

15.Ibid.，42.

16.Ibid.，49.

17.Ibid.，62.

18.Martin Ford，Rise of the Robots：Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future（New York：Basic Books，2015），77.

19.Sharon Pian Chan，Long Antitrust Saga Ends for Microsoft，Seattle Times，May 12，2011.

20.Tyler Cowen，Average Is Over：Powering America beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation（New York：Plume，2014），69.

21.Ford，Rise of the Robots，100-101.

22.Ibid.，113.

23.Atul Prakash，Rocky Markets Test the Rise of Amateur“Algo”Traders，Reuters，January 28，2016.

24.Bureau of Labor Statistics（BLS），Employment，Hours，and Earnings，Current Employment Statistics，October 15，2016.https：//www.bls.gov/ces/.

25.Robin Wigglesworth，Banks Deflect Attempts to Bring Sunlight to Bond Dealing，Financial Times，October 10，2016；Tracy Alloway and Michael MacKenzie，Bonds：Anatomy of a Market Meltdown，Financial Times，November 17，2014.

26.Klint Finley，This News-Writing Bot Is Now Free for Everyone，Wired，October 20，2015.

27.Ford，Rise of the Robots，107.

28.Ben-Bright Benuwa，Yongzhao Zhan，Benjamin Ghansah，Dickson Keddy Wornyo，and Frank Banaseka Kataka，A Review of Deep Machine Learning，International Journal of Engineering Research in Africa 24（2016）：132.

29.Brynjolfsson and McAfee，The Second Machine Age，30-33.

30.Cowen，Average Is Over，39-40.

31.Ibid.，244-245.

32.See Peter Temin，The Vanishing Middle Class：Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy（Cambridge，MA：MIT Press，2017）.

33.Cowen，Average Is Over，233.

34.A“Pigovian tax”is a fee imposed against private individuals or businesses for engaging in a specific activity.It is designed to discourage activities that create negative externalities（such as pollution）by bringing in line private and social costs.It was named after British economist Arthur C.Pigou，a leading early contributor to externality theory.

35.Brynjolfsson and Mc Afee，The Second Machine Age，225-227，237-238.

36.Cowen，Average Is Over，77-80.

37.Ford，Rise of the Robots，194-198.

38.Ibid.，257.

39.David H.Autor，Why Are There Still So Many Jobs？The History and Future of Workplace Automation，Journal of Economic Perspectives 29，no.3（Summer 2015）：5.

40.David Autor，presentation on the Future of Work，roundtable discussion，MIT，January 9，2016.

41.Michael J.Handel，presentation on Skills，Job Creation and Labour Markets，Conference on Smart Industry：Enabling the Next Production Revolution，OECD and Sweden Ministry of Enterprise and Innovation，Stockholm，September 18，2016.

42.David Mindell，Our Robots，Our Selves：Roboticsand the Myths of Autonomy（New York：Penguin Random House，2015）.

43.J.C.R.Licklider，Man-Computer Symbiosis，IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics 1（March 1960）：4-11，http：//groups.csail.mit.edu/medg/people/psz/Licklider.html.

44.Rethink Robotics，company website，http：//www.rethinkrobotics.com.

45.Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A.Osborne，The Future of Employment：How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization？Working Paper，Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment，September 17，2013，44.http：//www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-ofemployment.pdf.

46.Robert D.Atkinson，“It's Going to Kill Us！”and Other Myths about the Future of Artificial Intelligence，Information Technology and Innovation Foundation，Washington，DC，June 2016，13-14.

47.Ibid.，14.

48.Tom Walker，Why Economists Dislike a Lump of Labor，Review of Social Economy 65，no.3（September 2007）：281-282.

49.Ibid.，285.

50.Melanie Arntz，Terry Gregory，and Ulrich Zierahn，Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries，a Comparative Analysis，OECD Social，Employme nt and Migration Working Paper 189，OECD，Paris，June 16，2016.

51.David Autor and Michael Handel，Putting Tasks to the Test：Human Capital，Job Tasks，and Wages，Journal of Labor Economics 31，no.2（2013）：S59-S96.

52.Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development（OECD），Automation and Independent Work in a Digital Economy，Policy Brief，OECD，Paris，May 2016，2，http：//www.oecd.org/employment/Policy%20brief%20-%20Automation%20and%20Independent%20Work%20in%20a%20Digital%20Economy.pdf.

53.Georg Duernecker，Technology Adoption，Turbulence，and the Dynamics of Unemployment（paper，University of Mannheim，2009）.

54.Constantine Alexandrakis，Sectoral Differences in the Use of Information Technology and Matching Efficiency in the U.S.Labour Market，Applied Economics 46，no.29（2014）.

55.James Bessen，How Computer Automation Affects Occupations：Technology，Jobs，and Skills，Vox，CEPREconomic Policy Portal，September 22，2016.http：//voxeu.org/article/how-computer-automation-affects-occupations.

56.Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels，Robots at Work，Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper 1335，Centre for Economic Performance，London，England，March 2015，4-5.

57.Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo，Robots and Jobs：Evidence from US Labor Markets，NBER Working Paper No.23285，National Bureau of Economic Research，March 2017，2；Council of Economic Advisors to the President，Economic Report of the President Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisors（Washington，DC：White House，February 2016），234-235.(www.daowen.com)

58.Acemoglu and Restrepo，Robots and Jobs，1 5 and36-37.

59.Ibid.，28.

60.Ibid.，36-37.

61.Michael A.Russo，Director of Government Relations，Regulatory Affairs&Strategic Initiatives—GlobalFoundries，GlobalFoundries Update，slide presentation，Nov.27，2013.See also，Charles W.Wessner and Thomas R.Howell，New York's Nanotechnology Initiative：Best Practices and Challenges（paper），March 12，2017，8（jobs at the GlobalFoundries Malta，New York fab subsequently grew to 4000 direct and 20，000 indirect）.

62.Hiawatha Bray，Teaching a driverless car to turn left，The Boston Globe，April 22，2017，http：//apps.bostonglobe.com/business/graphics/2017/04/driverless/series/teaching-a-driverless-car-to-turn-left/.

63.Nauna Hejlund，presentation on Skills，Job Creation and Labour Market，Conference on Smart Industry：Enabling the Next Production Revolution，OECD and Sweden Ministry of Enterprise and Innovation，Stockholm，September 18，2016.

64.Population Council，Alvin Hansen on Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth，Population and Development Review 30，no.2（June 2004）：333.

65.Ibid.，338-339.

66.Ibid.，340.

67.Ibid.，341.

68.Benjamin Higgins，The Concept of Secular Stagnation，American Economic Review 40，no.1（March 1950）：160.

69.W.Robert Brazelton，Alvin Harvey Hansen：Economic Growth and a More Perfect Society：The Economist's Role in Defining the Stagnation Thesis and in Popularizing Keynesianism，American Journal of Economics and Sociology 48，no.4（October 1989）：437.

70.Anthony Scaperlanda，Hansen's Secular Stagnation Thesis Once Again，Journal of Economic Issues 11，no.2（June 1977）：225.

71.Morten Bech and Aytek Malkhozov，How Have Central Banks Implemented Negative Policy Rates？BISQuarterly Review，March 2016.

72.Lawrence H.Summers，Demand Side Secular Stagnation，American Economic Review：Papers and Proceedings 105，no.5（2015）：61.

73.Ibid.，62.

74.Ibid.，63.

75.Ben S.Bernanke，Why Are Interest Rates So Low？Part 2：Secular Stagnation，Brookings Institution，March 30，2015.Summers，Eggertsson，and Mehrotra released a paper that included an international dimension after Bernanke made this critique.In an open market，there must be similar conditions throughout the world.Bernanke proposes another explanation，deemed the global savings glut.Since the Fed's Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 15%in 1981，there has been a steady and continual decline in rates.The driver of this decrease is excessive savings in a number of emerging markets.Increasing capital outflows from these countries to the United States drive down the long-term interest rate.The dollar appreciates，and the U.S.saw current account balances grow.Unlike secular stagnation，monetary policy，mostly in developing countries，can correct the problem.This lack of balance is very evident in the current account number：in 2015，the United States had a deficit of$462 billion，while Germany had a surplus of$285 billion and China a surplus of$293 billion.Much of the appeal for this explanation likely lies in the fact that the burden of monetary and fiscal policy falls on developing countries.See Gauti B.Eggertsson，Neil R.Mehrotra，and Lawrence H.Summers，Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy，American Economic Review：Papers and Proceedings 106，no.5（2016）；Ben S.Bernanke，Why Are Interest Rates So Low？Part 3：The Global Savings Glut，Brookings Institution，April 1，2015；World Bank，Current Account Balance（BoP，current US$）http：//data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.CAB.XOKA.CD；Sean Miner，China's Cur-rent Account in 2015：A Growing Trade Surplus，Peterson Institute for International Economics，Washington，DC，February 8，2016.

76.Robert J.Gordon，Secular Stagnation：A Supply-Side View，American Economic Review：Papers and Proceedings 105，no.5（2015）：55.

77.Ibid.，56.

78.Robert Gordon，The Rise and Fall of American Growth（Princeton，NJ：Princeton University Press，2016），607.

79.Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan，U.S.Total Factor Productivity Slowdown：Evidence from the U.S.States，IMF Working Paper，International Monetary Fund，Washington，DC，May 2015，5.

80.Ricardo J.Caballero，Emmanuel Fari，and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas，Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand，January 26，2016，1，10，later released as NBER Working Paper 22044，National Bureau of Economic Research，Cambridge，MA，February 2016.One piece of evidence supporting this theory is that between December 2009 and December 2015，the tradeweighted U.S.dollar index exchange value compared against major currencies apprecia ted from about 72 to 94.This was an increase of over 30%—with close to no change in interest rates.The yield on the ten-year Treasury note decreased from a range between 3.28%and 3.85%in December 2009 to between 2.13%and 2.33%in December 2015.See Federal Reserve System Board of Governors，Trade Weighted U.S.Dollar Index：Major Currencies[DTWEXM].https：//fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM.；Department of the Treasury，Daily Trea-sury Yield Curve Rates.https：//www.treasury.gov/resourcecenter/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx？data=yield Year&year=2015.

81.Michael J.Fleming and Nicholas J.Klagge，The Federal Reserve's Foreign Exchange Swap Lines，Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance 16，no.4（April 2010）.

82.Chan Sewell，The 2010 Campaign：Democrats Are at Odds on Relevance of Keynes，New York Times，October 19，2010.

83.Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis and U.S.Office of Management and Budget，Federal Debt：Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product[GFDEGDQ188S].https：//fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S.

84.See Mark Blyth，Austerity：The History of a Dangerous Idea（Oxford：Oxford University Press，2013）.

85.Carmen M.Reinhart and Kenneth S.Rogoff，This Time Is Different：Eight Centuries of Financial Folly（Princeton，NJ：Princeton University Press，2009）.

86.Christopher L.House，Christian Proebsting，and Linda Tesar，Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession，NBER Draft，National Bureau of Economic Research，Cambridge，MA，November 24，2015.

87.While Greece is a unique case because of its place in the Eurozone，it highlights the potentially devastating impact of austerity.In 2007，the GDP in Greece was around 63 billion（in chained 2010 euros），but by midway through 2016，it had fallen to 46 billion.About 27%of the country's GDP was lost，with poverty increasing from 2.2%to 15% between 2009 and 2015.The shortcomings of austerity are now more widely acknowledged，with the IMF，which had participated in the Greek bailout with its stringent conditions，changing tack in 2012.It is important to remember this episode in the wake of the crisis because in essence this delay likely contributed to the slow recovery.

88.Olivier Blanchard，Giovanni Dell'Ariccia，and Paolo Mauro，Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy，Journal of Money，Credit and Banking 42，no.5（September 2010）：205.

89.Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh，Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers，IMF Working Paper，International Monetary Fund，Washington，DC，January 2013，3.

90.Ibid.，19.

91.Alan J.Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko，Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion，in Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis，ed.Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，2013），91-92.

92.American Society of Civil Engineers，2013 Report Card for America's Infrastructure，http：//www.infrastructurereportcard.org/.

93.Elena Holodny，The 11 Countries with the Best Infrastructure around the World，Business Insider，October 2，2015.

94.Bureau of Labor Statistics（BLS），Table A-4.Employment Status of the Civilian Population 25 Years and Over by Educational Attainment，October 7，2016.http：//www.murraylax.org/eco120/fall2016/bls20161007_short.pdf.

95.Bureau of Labor Statistics（BLS），Table 3.3.Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate by Age，Gender，Race，and Ethnicity，1994，2004，2014，and projected 2024（in percent），December 8，2015.https：//www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_301.htm.

96.Lawrence H.Summers，Building the Case for Greater Infrastructure Investment，Financial Times，September 11，2016.

97.Congressional Budget Office（CBO），Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure，1956 to 2014，March 2015，10.

98.Ibid.，14.

99.Chris Mooney，The Gas Tax Has Been Fixed at 18 Cents for Two Decades.Now Would Be a Great Time to Raise It，Washington Post，December 3，2014.

100.Governor of Connecticut's Transportation Finance Panel，Final Report，January 15，2016，7-8，http：//portal.ct.gov/uploadedFiles/Departments_and_Agencies/Office_of_the_Governor/Learn_More/Working_Groups/2016.01.15%20TFP%20 final%20report.pdf.

101.International Monetary Fund（IMF），World Economic Outlook 2014：Legacies，Clouds，Uncertainties（Washington，DC：International Monetary Fund，October 2014），75.

102.Camilla Yanushevsky and Rafael Yanushevsky，Is Infrastructure Spending an Effective Fiscal Policy？，Metroeconomica 65，no.1（2014）：134-135.

103.Amitabh Chandra and Eric Thompson，Does Public Infrastructure Affect Economic Activity？Evidence from the Rural Interstate Highway System，Regional Science and Urban Economics 30（2000）：459-460.

104.Barbara M.Fraumeni，The Contribution of Highways to GDP Growth，NBER Working Paper 14736，National Bureau of Economic Research，Cambridge，MA，February 2009；Gilles Duranton and Matthew A.Turner，Urban Growth and Transportation，Review of Economic Studies 1（2012）.

105.Daniel J.Wilson，Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers：Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act，American Economic Journal：Economic Policy 4，no.3（2012）：258-259.

106.Ibid.，278.

107.Ibid.，258-259.

108.Robert D.Atkinson，The Past and Future of America's Economy：Long Waves of Innovation That Power Cycles of Growth（Cheltenham：Edward Elgar，2004）；Carlota Perez，Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital：The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages（Cheltenham：Edward Elgar，2002）.

109.Gordon，The Rise and Fall of American Growth，170.

110.Ibid.，390-391.

111.Carl Kitchens and Price Fishback，Flip the Switch：The Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940，Journal of Economic History 75，no.4（December 2015）.

112.World Bank，Age Dependency Ratio（% of Working-Age Population）：United States.http：//data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND？locations=US.

113.Kerwin Kofi Charles，Erik Hurst，and Matthew J.Notowidigdo，The Masking of the Declinein Manufacturing Employment by the House Bubble，Journal of Economic Perspectives 30，no.2（Spring 2016）：181.

114.Peter L.Singer，Investing in“Innovation Infrastructure”to Restore U.S.Growth（Washington，DC：Information Technology and Innovation Foundation[ITIF]，January 3，2017），http：//www2.itif.org/2017-innovation-infrastructure.pdf？_ga=1.198109420.2108411368.1483563653.

115.Bureau of Economic Analysis（BEA），Real Value Added by Industry，April 21，2016.https：//fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables？rid=331&eid=245.

116.This rise in real value added，according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis，was primarily driven by a 699%increase in the computer and electronic products sector.Only the petroleum and motor vehicles sectors increased by more than manufacturing as a whole，about 61%and 67%，respectively.Eight of the 19 sectors actually saw a decrease in value added，according to the government statistics.These very high increases in value added and output can distort analyses of the manufacturing industry as a whole.An ITIF study shows the distortion that measurement problems in computing and energy sector data introduce into manufacturing data.See Robert D.Atkinson，Luke A.Stewart，Scott M.Andes，and Stephen Ezell，Worse than the Great Depression：What the Experts Are Missing about American Manufacturing Decline（Washington，DC：Information Technology and Innovation Foundation[ITIF]，March 19，2012），http：//www2.itif.org/2012-american-manufacturing-decline.pdf.Houseman，Bartik，and Sturgeon note that when the computer industry is dropped from measures，the data shows that an increase in demand for manufactured goods increases employment.See Susan N.Houseman，Timothy J.Bartik，and Timothy J.Sturgeon，Measuring Manufacturing：How the Computer and Semiconductor Industries Affect the Numbers and Perceptions，Upjohn Institute Working Paper 14-209，Upjohn Institute，Kalamazoo，MI，January 2014，4.

117.Perhaps the best articulation of this concern was in Charles L.Schultze，Industrial Policy：A Dissent，Brookings Review 2，no.1（Fall 1983）：3-12，http：//www.brookings.edu/～/media/Files/rc/articles/1983/industrial_policy_schultze.pdf.For a conservative perspective on the industrial policy debates in the 1980s，see also Richard B.McKenzie，Industrial Policy，in Concise Encyclopedia of Economics，2nd ed.，2007（Library of Economics and Liberty），http：//www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/IndustrialPolicy.html.

118.Helper，Krueger，and Wial，Why Does Manufacturing Matter？See also Stephen S.Cohen and John Zysman，Manufacturing Matters：The Myth of a Post-industrial Economy（New York：Basic Books，1987）.