朱秀君

[提　要]自1994年分税制改革以来，我国土地财政模式经过20多年的运行，已积聚了诸多的问题和风险，如果不引起重视，将可能导致整体经济运行风险。本篇写作的目的就是想要探明我国土地财政模式究竟面临着哪些问题和风险，以便针对性地提出化解风险的对策建议，助力土地财政模式进一步健康运行。

本篇围绕土地财政的收入、支出及“土地融资”债务三方面，运用文献查阅、实地调查和统计分析等方法进行风险识别和传导路径分析，并通过构建风险测评指标体系、采用熵权法确定指标权重，计算出历年土地财政风险评估值。

研究发现，土地财政收入长期来看将无以为继，而短期风险则主要受到国家宏观调控的影响；在收入有保障的情况下，支出风险主要在于预算制度的缺失、监管不力和支出结构安排的随意性。测评结果显示，土地财政风险水平经历了先升后降的过程，表明近年来国家对于土地财政管控效果的释放。随着偿付期的密集到来，“土地融资”债务风险成为当前最严重的风险，而新预算法的及时出台，有效地缓解了当前的债务风险。

[关键词]土地财政；“土地融资”债务；新预算法；“置换债”；风险评估

Research on China's Land Financial Risks(www.daowen.com)

ZHU Xiujun

Abstract:Since the tax reform in 1994，China's land fiscal model has accumulated a great deal of problems and risks after more than 20 years of operation.If it does not attract much attention，it may lead to the overall economic risk.The purpose of this part is to find out what kinds of problems and risks our country's land financial model are facing，so as to put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for resolving the risks in a targeted manner and to foster the further healthy operation of the land financial model.

Based on the three aspects of the revenue，expenditure of land finance and the debt of“land financing”，this part carries out risk identification and path analysis through literature review，field investigation and statistical analysis.Besides，by constructing the index system of risk assessment and using the method of entropy indicator weight，this part calculates the annual land financial risk assessment.

The research shows that the land finance income will be unsustainable in the long run，while the short-term risks are mainly affected by the macroeconomic regulation and control of the state.When the income is guaranteed，the expenditure risk mainly lies in the lack of the budget system，ineffective supervision and the randomness of expenditure structure arrangement.The evaluation results show that the level of financial risk of land has experienced a process where it first rises and then descends.The results indicate that the state has released the effect of land financial control in the recent years.With the intensive payment period，the“land financing”debt risk becomes the most serious risk at present.However，the timely delivery of the new algorithm effectively alleviates the current debt risk.

Key Words:land finance；“land financing”debt；new budget law；“bond swap”；risk assessment